According to multiple reports, Grand Theft Auto 6 is in development. Which is unsurprising to many as a sequel to Rockstar Games’ open world crime series is seen as inevitable. But according to analysts, it’s likely to arrive as late as 2024 and in 2023 at the earliest.
During the acquisition of mobile development giant Zynga, Take-Two Interactive, the parent company of Rockstar, said that it would have a “compound annual growth rate” of 14% into the fiscal year of 2024. An analyst from research company Jeffries told Axios’ Stephen Totilo that, “there are only a handful of titles” that can give Take-Two the confidence to reach that growth target, saying they “believe there is at least one Rockstar IP set to be released by FY24.”
Doug Creutz, an analyst from the investment and financial services company Cowen, implicitly shared this sentiment saying that this points to “a likely GTA 6 launch in FY24.” FY 24 refers to the fiscal year of April 1, 2023 through March 31, 2024, so this translates to the possibility, however slim, that GTA 6 could launch in 2023.
This could line up with previous financials from Take-Two, which in 2020 said that its marketing expenses would double in 2024, which Jeff Cohen of the investment group Stephens said was indicative of a new GTA release. However, to date Rockstar Games has not confirmed development of GTA 6, it’s existence is simply presumed and a rep for the company denied it, saying that marketing commitments to third-party companies are in play here.
Take all of this with a grain of salt: what analysts say about a studio like Rockstar or a publisher like Take-Two is not indicative of any inside track on those companies. They are at most, a collection of intuitive statements and if not, simply wishful thinking from people who want you to believe they can chart the growth and investment opportunities that well recognized companies represent.
That being said, it’s simply a matter of time when Rockstar Games announces its next major release whether its Grand Theft Auto 6 or something else. Grand Theft Auto 5 turns nine this year, and Red Dead Redemption 2 turns four.